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World poll round-up: France, Germany, New Zealand, Russia and Greece
Recent opinion polls suggest close races in the first round of France's presidential election, as well as the German federal vote, more languid contests for the Russian presidency and New Zealand's parliament, and further polling evidence that SYRIZA's left-wing government in Greece has a difficult road ahead to win re-election.Posted by Paul, 2017-03-09
Are women underrepresented in politics because they run in areas where their party is weak?
To mark International Women's Day, let's look at some political science research tackling questions of women and politics.
While research in the area of gender and politics is much broader than this, let's look at a few specific questions around elections, political activity and political knowledge. Are women underrepresented in parliaments because they run in less safe ridings? Are young girls more likely to run for office when they see high-profile women in prominent political roles? Are men more politically confident than women? Are women less likely than men to guess the answer to a political knowledge question?Posted by Paul, 2017-03-08
5 Election Stories You Should Catch Up On
As always, the world's many elections always provide for some interesting reading.
Here are 5 articles you might want to catch up on, covering the effects of populism on evidence-based decision-making in the Netherlands, French Presidential candidate François Fillon's continuing political and polling woes, the difficulty of predicting elections in the world's largest sub-national entity, Uttar Pradesh, and an interesting land use referendum in Los Angeles.Posted by Paul, 2017-03-07
What is the D’Hondt Method? An Explainer
Many jurisdictions that use proportional representation as an electoral system use the D’Hondt method as a way to assign seats to parties. It’s used in Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Denmark, Ecuador, Scotland, the London Assembly, some countries in European Parliamentary elections as well as in dozens of other countries, cities and assorted sub-national entries.
Named after Belgian lawyer Victor D'Hondt who developed the system in 1878, a similar system was earlier devised by Thomas Jefferson, who found some time between inventing the swivel chair and pedometers to develop a method to assign seats to states for the House of Representatives.
You may also be glad to find out that I was debating between calling this post The Thrill of D’Hondt, but ultimately decided against it.Posted by Paul, 2017-03-06
How the NDP can win British Columbia
The upcoming May provincial election in British Columbia, Canada, looks like it will involve a competitive contest between the incumbent BC Liberals and their centre-left NDP.
Two obstacles stand in the way of the NDP: they need an approximate 3 percentage point swing province wide to hope to pick up the 9 new seats they'll need to win a majority, and they may, like in 2013, be polling better than they will actually perform on election day.Posted by Paul, 2017-03-06