World poll round-up: France, Germany, New Zealand, Russia and Greece
Posted by Paul, 2017-03-09
Recent opinion polls suggest close races in the first round of France's presidential election, as well as the German federal vote, more languid contests for the Russian presidency and New Zealand's parliament, and further polling evidence that SYRIZA's left-wing government in Greece has a difficult road ahead to win re-election.
France, president, March 9: Independent Emmanuel Macron continues his rise in polling, drawing nearly even with the National Front's Marine Le Pen, trailing her 26-25, but 6 points ahead third-place Republican François Fillon. Macron has maintained a stable 20 percentage point lead over Le Pen in second point polling since February 1st, and 1/3 of French voters now forecast Macron as the eventual winner, up from 21 per cent in March. Interestingly, Le Pen does slightly better with voters under 35 than those over 35.
Germany, federal, March 8: Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU coalition has run into some major problems since late January. They had a lead over the Social Democrats (SPD) of about 12 percentage points that has dropped to a tie in recent weeks. The latest poll has the CDU at 32 per cent, and the SPD at 31.
New Zealand, general, February 15: Since Prime Minister John Key's surprise retirement, few opinion polls have been released. Despite this article's enthusiastic interpretation, the three polls released since Key's departure are very similar to those from before. The ruling National Party is polling in the mid-to-high 40s, while Labour is polling in the mid-to-high 20s. An election with these results would mark no change for the National Party, and a small increase in support for Labour.
Russia, presidential, March 1: Perhaps unsurprisingly polling has Vladimir Putin at a stable 67 per cent of the vote. He has polled between 65 and 67 per cent in the last 9 polls. His nearest opponent Vladimir Zhirinovsky is equally stable at 10 per cent.
Greece, legislative, March 6: SYRIZA (or the Coalition of the Radical Left) performed a rare defeat winning 2 elections in one year in 2015. Since then, their polling fortunes have not been quite as bright. In the latest poll, SYRIZA's 7 percentage point victory in 2015 has been overturned by the centre-right New Democracy, who now lead 33 per cent to 19.